According to Craig Wright, RBC Senior Vice President, Chief Economist and Sean Simpson, Vice President, Ipsos Public Affairs the Ontario economy is healthy. Craig Wright and Sean Simpson spoke at a breakfast hosted by the Oakville Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday, January 10, 2018.
Big issues effecting the Ontario Economy were NAFTA, Ontario's Regulation of the Housing Market and the implementation of the $14.00 minimum wage.
60 percent of Canadians believe Trudeau is effectively managing our relationship with the Trump government, including the NAFTA negotiations. Mr. Wright predicts that NAFTA will be ripped up, even though the preference would be to tweak the existing agreement. Should NAFTA be terminated, Ontario's economy is not expected to suffer, because trade is balanced between our countries.
Home prices were noticeably impacted by Ontario’s regulations. The Fair Housing Act cooled the market. It targeted foreign buyers who were blamed for double digit price increases. When Ontario's Act took effect house prices were increasing by 33 percent. Currently, they are down to 7 percent. Vancouver implemented similar regulations, and prices are now increasing. Ontario's decrease may be short lived.
The minimum wage increase to $14.00 per hour and its effect on the Ontario economy was a hot topic. According to Mr. Wright, the double digit increase was done for political gain, rather than sound fiscal policy. An interesting fact not mentioned yesterday was Alberta’s minimum wage. Alberta's minimum wage of $13.60 per hour made it the highest in Canada. It's implementation was gradual. Alberta's 2017 GDP was 4.1%, which also made it the highest in Canada. Alberta’s minimum wage was just passed by Ontario. In October 2018 Alberta's minimum wage will increase to $15.00 per hour, and Ontario’s will increase to $15.00 per hour as of January 1, 2019. There are a number of factors that effect a province's GDP. Will there be a correlation between Alberta and Ontario?
Canadian Perspectives
Sean Simpson' information revealed how Canadians felt about a range of topics.
- 77 percent believed that they were healthy
- 77 percent were happy
- 71 percent had a good social life
- 66 percent felt better off financially
- 59 percent felt their sex life was good
- 50 percent felt Canada's economy was on the right track
Federal Government:
If a Federal election was held today, 38 percent would vote liberal, 31 percent would vote conservative, and 20 percent would vote NDP.
The perspective of Canadians on how the Liberals are handling the economy:
- 51 percent don't believe the government knows what it is doing
- 48 percent feel that Prime Minister knows what is good for the middle class
Ontario Government:
Who they would vote for currently:
- NDP: 28%
- Liberal: 28%
- Conservative: 36%
81 percent of Ontarians believe that it is time for a change in leadership.
Who would be Ontario's best leader:
- Horwath - 44%
- Brown - 41%
- Wynne - 26%
Sexual Harassment at Work
During this past year, work place sexual harassment was top of mind. Business leaders need to pay attention.
22 percent of employees have been sexually harassed at work. Of the 53% percent of people who were sexually harassed, the perpetrator held a senior position.
The reason that 77% of survivors did not reported harassment:
- 35% felt there would be repercussions
- 26% felt nothing would be done
Only 57 percent of those who did report the incident felt that it was handled satisfactorily.
Ontario's economy is healthy. Ontario’s GDP of 2.9% is the same as Canada's. For 2018, Craig Wright is forecasting Canada's GDP to be 1.9% and Ontario's to be 2.1%. There will be challenges. However, those challenges can be overcome.