By 8:00 AM the ballroom at the Holiday Inn was buzzing with conversation and filled to capacity. Oakville's business community was waiting for the 2014 RBC Economic Outlook by Craig Wright and Finn Poschmann.
Mr Wright is the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist for RBC. Mr. Poschmann is a Vice President of the C.D. Howe Institute. Both men meet regularly with the federal and provincial Ministers of Finance, Jim Flaherty and Charles Sousa for Ontario respectively.
The view of RBC chief economist for Canada's and Ontario's market was positive, except for the strength of the Canadian dollar, which he pegged at $0.90 US with it possibly dropping as low as $0.85 US. The dollar's decline is a direct result of a strengthening US economy. This was tempered by the concern about the effect on the US economy as their Federal government's stimulus is eliminated. However, the belief that as our dollar drops our exports will rise which will spur on Ontario's economy.
Mr Poschman primarily focused on the residential real estate market, drilling right down to the expectation for Oakville's specific neighbourhoods. South East Oakville, Central Oakville, and Downtown Oakville are expected to have the smallest increase in prices from zero to four percent; north of the QEW prices are expected to rise by four to six percent; and, Bronte is expected see the greatest rise in prices from six to seven percent.
From a global perspective both men indicated a concern about the Chinese market softening, and the black hole that makes up the Chinese banking system. Growth is pegged at 8.5 percent by the Chinese; however, their numbers are never able to be verified.
It appears that the problems of the previous year of a very unstable Euro, and a fragile US economy seemed to have calmed, which provides for stability regarding Canadian employment rates, housing prices, lending rates and growth for our exporters.
Councillors Dave Gittings, Tom Adams, Alan Johnson, and Mayor Rob Burton at the 2014 Economic Forecast Breakfast.Councillors Dave Gittings, Tom Adams, Alan Johnson, and Mayor Rob Burton at the 2014 Economic Forecast Breakfast.