Get ready for tonight's 94th Academy Awards

Let's be honest: it's been a rough go for new movies since through the last two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. The only thing in entertainment that's had it rougher is the Oscars - the annual televised show that honours those same movies.

This year's 94th Academy Awards being presented tonight, Sunday, March 27, 2022, ends one of the quietest and most subdued award seasons of recent memory. (Though part of that is thanks to the Omicron wave, Winter Olympics and ongoing war in Ukraine.)

In the scope of the entire world, the Oscars are struggling to convince people of their relevancy, and with good reason. Annoying and controversial decision like a fan-chosen award for most popular film (plagued by sabotaging fake Twitter accounts) and the omission of several awards on the live telecast tonight aren't helping the Oscars appeal to more people.

Yet despite the out-of-touch producing team and the current tumultuous state of the movie business, I’m still expecting tonight to be fun.

As a movie critic, the Oscars still brings an air of excitement akin to Christmas morning. It can be easy to feel cynical about another award show, but this is the Oscars - it really is an honour and a big deal to be a winner. And yes, it really also is an honour just to be nominated.

My advice? Like most entertainment from the waning pandemic, take the show's spirit seriously and the literal show less so. You’ll relax and have a lot more fun.

For anyone who's looking for an exciting venue to watch the show this year, Film.Ca Cinemas is resuming their annual Oscars party on the big screen, hosted by CEO Jeff Knoll. Admission is by optional donation, and there will be fundraising throughout the night this year benefitting the Red Cross Ukrainian relief fund. 

But who’s going to bring home a statuette? That’s always harder to figure out than it appears. If you want some help filling out an Oscar ballot, my annual cheat sheet is listed below.

Luckily, I saw more than 200 movies last year, including over 95% of all the nominated feature-length movies at tonight’s show. After an exciting year in cinema, let me help guide you in the likeliest winners.

It’s worth remembering that predicting the Oscars isn’t about who you want to win. It’s about who you think the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science actually voted to win. But this year I'm predicting the prizes are going to be spread out to an uncommonly large number of movies - with more than a dozen films winning one (but only one) award each.

Here are my predictions for the three movies I believe will win more than one statuette. You can use my background and predictions to help you win your Oscar ballot tonight.

CODA

• Best Picture
• Best Adapted Screenplay for Sian Heder
• Best Supporting Actor for Troy Kotsur as Frank Rossi

For months, this race has been The Power of the Dog's to lose. I still believe that both Dog and West Side Story are better movies, but more people have seen AppleTV+'s runaway hit and the story of a teenage girl and her deaf family in Boston has touched almost everyone who's seen it. CODA only has three nominations all night, but it's likely going to win all three. Troy Kotsur as Frank (the Dad) is a slam-dunk surefire winner.

It is worth knowing I (the author) am great at predicting the Oscars with a high track record, but I'm notoriously bad at correctly guessing Best Picture. Long-time front runner and Netflix's western The Power of the Dog is equally likely to be tonight's big winner.

DUNE

• Best Original Score for Hans Zimmer
• Best Visual Effects
• Best Film Editing
• Best Sound
• Best Cinematography
• Best Production Design

Canadian director Denis Villeneuve's sci-fi epic is second most-nominated film this year, and it's going to nearly clean sweep the technical categories. It's more deserving than deserving for its accomplishments in design, sound, camera work and effects. The only two possible winners it will fall short on Costume and Makeup design. (Read the full Oakville News review from October 2021 here.)

THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE

• Best Actress for Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye Bakker
• Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Like last year, Best Actress is a tough category to predict because there's no clear front runner. But from earlier award shows this year, Jessica Chastain's work as televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker (in the little-seen TIFF 2021 movie The Eyes of Tammy Faye) tends to be the safest bet. The film will almost definitely win best makeup.

Curiously, those are the only movies that will likely win more than one Oscar tonight. All the other twelve categories are expected to go to different movies, each taking home only just one prize.

Listed below is each of the remaining awards and my predicted winner for them, ranked in order of likelihood (with one being the most secure prediction and twelve the most risky.) Some of these movies also have full reviews here with Oakville News - to read them, click on the highlighted movie title.

1. Drive My Car in Japanese (Best International Feature)
2. Anita DeBose as Anita for West Side Story (Best Supporting Actress)
3. Summer of Soul (Best Documentary Feature)
4. Encanto (Best Animated Feature)
5. "No Time to Die" from No Time to Die (Best Original Song)
6. Cruella (Best Costume Design)
7. Will Smith as Richard Williams for King Richard (Best Actor)
8. The Queen of Basketball (Best Documentary Short)
9. Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog (Best Director)
10. Robin Robin (Best Animated Short)
11. Kenneth Branagh for Belfast (Best Original Screenplay)
12. The Long Goodbye (Best Live Action Short)

Netflix's The Power of the Dog has the most nominations tonight, and for months it's been the predicted winner in several categories, including Best Picture. Most of the upsets in awards tonight, if any, will come from this film. Director Jane Campion will definitely win, but it's otherwise in a photo-finish race with CODA in the three categories they are both nominated.

Interestingly, no matter which of those two films win (as it will almost certainly be one of those two), it will mean that for the first time ever, a movie from a streaming service - either AppleTV+ or Netflix - will finally win Best Picture of the year.

Tonight’s ceremony begins airing on various networks at 8:00 p.m., but the red carpet pre-show begins on most channels at 7:00 p.m. There's also the Oscars viewing party at Oakville's Film.Ca Cinemas, also starting at 7:00 p.m., though reserving a spot online in advance is recommended to guarantee a seat. (The event fills up every year, but often has seats until an hour or two before showtime.)

Get ready for an exciting and unpredictable 94th Academy Awards. There might not be many (if any) big winners tonight, and who knows how successful the Oscars will be at re-engaging an audience. But as said in the 1962 Best Picture winner Lawrence of Arabia, "Big things have small beginnings!"