"It is very much better to have a panic feeling beforehand and then be quite calm when things happen than to be extremely calm beforehand and to get into a panic when things happen." Winston Churchill
Climate change may not be existential for the human race, but it's clearly existential for some. And if that's you or your grandchildren, it might well motivate you more than some vague idea that the earth might be a couple of degrees warmer.
Forest fires and floods have taken real lives. Yes, we've always had forest fires and floods, but this is on a new scale. Canada alone is up to 15.3 million hectares burned this year, more than double the worst year on record, when we lost 7.4 million…in the whole year. More than three months are left, and many fires are still burning. Forest management is a factor, but climate change increases intensity and frequency.
That's just in Canada. The recent flood in Libya took more than 10,000 lives and still counting. More desert in sub-Saharan Africa is leading to war, and all over the world, people are moving because of the weather.
The best science says the main accelerator of this change is human activity. I hope there is better science at some point that tells us this was just part of a normal variation, but for now, we have to go with the best information we have. As they say, what proves science wrong? Better science--not your uncle on Facebook or your golfing buddy. Or even a minority of scientists whose work is not peer-reviewed and whose funding can sometimes be traced to oil companies.
A couple of degrees across the world on average doesn't sound like a big deal, but it plays out as a lot of degrees at more northern latitudes for brief periods, and that sets the stage for changing wind patterns, ocean current flows, rainfall and dry tinder for fires. Among countless other consequences, beetles suddenly surviving winter threaten crops. Species are threatened, and well-established trade routes are at risk of major disruption.
If we keep doing what we are doing, we risk hitting tipping points, which could result in genuinely catastrophic change if this level of fire doesn't count as catastrophic enough.
Think I am being alarmist? Perhaps, but as Winston Churchill said: "It is very much better to have a panic feeling beforehand, and then be quite calm when things happen than to be extremely calm beforehand and to get into a panic when things happen."
For reasons why we are not panicking, watch The Enigma of Climate Inaction, by William Rees, professor at UBC.
It feels as though we failed to panic in advance, despite informed warnings, and are now fighting a panicked rearguard action. I suspect it feels that way to a lot of the firefighters. As our grandparents used to say, "A stitch in time saves nine." We have missed the chance for one stitch, and now nine may not even be enough to stave off the worst impacts.
Here in Halton, Crawford Lake reveals when humans started putting more blankets on the planet, making it hotter. Scientists think this might be the beginning of a new geological age, one they call the Anthropocene, where our decisions increasingly determine the environment.
Climate migration, food production challenges, droughts, floods, fires, and likely wars over resources will change the quality of life, making it less and less predictable. And so far, what we are seeing points to it being worse.
For those who think climate change may have benefits, the people in Yellowknife and Kelowna would beg to differ.
We are obviously going to have to do two things: one, stop putting more greenhouse gas blankets on the earth as fast as we can, and two, strengthen our infrastructure and adapt to the changes that are already baked in (excuse the aptness of the metaphor). There is a third thing: take steps to remove some of the blankets we have already drawn over the planet.
"For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." H.L.Mencken. There are no simple answers. So, what can you and I do?
We need market forces to address the problem, but we cannot rely solely upon them. Changes must be made quickly. When we faced major threats in the past, there was never any illusion that markets could mobilize a response quickly enough.
For example, the wartime switch from consumer production to military can happen overnight, but only if the government mandates it. Only governments can initiate and drive the rapid change that such threats require. And it's undoubtedly government, which means you and me, who will pay to fight the fires and floods and compensate the victims.
In any case, markets work through price based on supply and demand, and without government, there is no price on pollution. A price on pollution is a carbon tax. Done globally, carbon taxes could save some of the taxes required for firefighting, flood control and rebuilding. They will save money in the long run.
And they are not material to our cost of living, as we have them returned to us in a cash rebate. Bank of Canada estimates the carbon tax has increased inflation by a mere 0.15%. What they do do is make it economical to produce less carbon. They align our personal short-term economic self-interest with the long-term interest of our grandchildren.
So, we need to support governments willing to take the dramatic steps this threat requires. It means taxing and regulating greenhouse-gas-generating activities and investing in technological advancement to support our lifestyles without emissions. Technologies that even draw down the greenhouse gases we have been putting into the atmosphere since fossil fuels powered the vast improvements in human life we have all enjoyed: in other words, taking the blankets back off. (A Canadian company, Carbon Engineering, is rapidly perfecting and implementing technology that removes carbon from the air and can make it into fuel. The higher the price of carbon, the sooner this makes economic sense.)
The steps that need to be taken mean harnessing market forces (yes, the forces of personal economic self-interest) with taxes on the activities that contribute to putting more blankets on the planet, which will make people and organizations seek out non-polluting, untaxed and therefore less expensive ways to fulfill their mandates and pursue their goals.
As any manager knows, the compensation plan must be aligned with the organization's goals. This is the least intrusive way to change behaviour and incentivize innovation to reduce the burden of these taxes by reducing the pollution they are pricing. If we do it enough and fast enough, we may be able to avoid the kind of extreme regulated restructuring that creates new bureaucracies and severely curtails personal freedom and distorts markets. The best way to pay less tax on pollution is for there to be less pollution.
So, the number one thing you can do is pressure your governments at all levels to treat this as the priority it is for the survival of human life as we know it on planet Earth: to put the country on a footing to fight this threat by working to eliminate emissions as fast as possible, to encourage their removal from the atmosphere, and to prepare our infrastructure and emergency services to deal with the fires, droughts and floods that are now inevitably going to be more frequent until we turn this around, which will take decades or possibly centuries.
Next, you can spread the word and counter those who resist the changes that must be made with arguments like:
- "Anything we do is futile because China and India are building coal plants."
No one is safe from climate change's impacts. There already is and will be more pressure in China and India to expand energy generation from clean and renewable sources. China is a leader in EV adoption and solar power. How can we ask these other countries, which are still developing, to do so in a clean way if we, a more advanced rich country, won't do it ourselves?
- "Our economy is based on fossil fuel and resources."
Absolutely true. But wildfires have stalled lumbering activities, and brought a halt in some cases to mining and even oil extraction. The economy is losing productivity because of extreme weather events made more frequent by human activity. Not to mention the cost of replacing destroyed property and fighting fires and floods, all of which are paid for by our taxes and insurance premiums; these will have to rise, and they are an unproductive burden on the economy.
New means of energy management that don't produce emissions will also require mining, an area of Canadian expertise both at home and around the world. This is an opportunity to replace fossil fuel extraction with the mining of precious metals needed in the clean economy, and create new high-paying jobs..
- "We are only 1% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, we can't make a difference, and it will only make us poorer."
We may be Canadians, but we are also in this with the whole world. Per person, Canada is one of the worst emitters of greenhouse gases in the world: each Canadian pollutes much, much more than each citizen of India or China.
More frequent and severe wildfires, storms and floods will not make us richer either.
- "The climate has always changed; you can't affect the weather."
Well, it must be evident to everyone now that we do indeed affect the weather. Halton's Crawford Lake tells us when we started making a difference. Yes, the climate has always changed, and it goes back and forth, but according to our best science, it has never changed this much this fast before, and we are the reason.
But what about my individual actions?
"I am only one person," said 7 billion people. The truth is the huge changes to industry, construction (where concrete and cement manufacturing are big contributors to emissions), agriculture and transportation to get greenhouse gases to zero will take a lot of time, even if governments really demonstrate the will to act on their rhetoric, which still seems uncertain in most countries. Scaling up carbon removal technology will take a lot of time too.
As we wait for technological transition, our individual actions, combined with others, can make a difference: they can help buy a little more time for technology to make the changes and perhaps avoid reaching the more catastrophic tipping points scientists warn of.
Here are some personal behavioural changes you can try to make to extend the horizon as the energy transition evolves by reducing your carbon footprint:
- Waste less food.
Food is transported, packaged, and wasted, accounting for a significant amount of avoidable emissions. Composting helps, but buying fresh food with a plan for its consumption, rather than making sure there is something always in the fridge, will reduce your food spending and impact emissions.
- Drive less and drive better.
Individual vehicle transportation is a major worldwide emitter. Go electric the next time you replace a vehicle: it is now competitive for the average driver if fuel and maintenance savings are considered. But don't prematurely replace a good vehicle to go electric: manufacturing new vehicles also contributes to emissions.
Walk, cycle, take transit. Support urban planning that encourages transit use.
- Fly less.
This is a tough one for Canadians, many of whom have family abroad, and we live in a vast and spread-out country. And it's clear that travel is educational and can contribute to better understanding between people, something we will need to help solve the climate challenge.
But a lot of travel is for vacations.
The aviation industry is aware of its vulnerability (in France, some short-haul flights are already banned), so it's working hard to find renewable fuels. NASA (a government agency) recently made a battery breakthrough that may make some electric-powered aviation possible. While we wait for these changes and for technology that can draw down the accumulated carbon emissions of the past centuries, we can look for other ways to enjoy ourselves rather than optional flying. Canada offers many low-impact recreational activities, from camping and canoe travel to hiking and cross-country skiing. Your choices for how you spend your leisure time are yours: you may have to commute to work where only driving is a practical option, but you can be conscious and thoughtful about your recreation.
When you do fly for vacation, consider offsets. (You can even buy them, as I do, to offset vintage car driving.) They are far from perfect, but they can make a difference and help buy time. And you might be surprised by how little they cost.
- Heating and cooling.
In Ontario, electricity is more than 80% clean, and the remainder is natural gas, as coal generation has been eliminated. So, electricity is the least emissions-intensive way to heat and cool your home. It should also be the least expensive, as the carbon tax system evolves to correctly price the pollution of gas and oil heating.
Consider a heat pump when it comes time to replace a central air conditioner. Even an air source heat pump can dramatically reduce your need to use a furnace in winter, and the cooling is every bit as good as a conventional air conditioner. Ground source heat pumps and geothermal systems are even better but are not practical for everyone.
On an individual level, every one of these changes is small, but they add up if enough of us do it to perhaps buy a little more time for technology to outrace the threat of cataclysmic climate change. None of them represent major hardship or "going back to the horse and buggy," as some people argue when making changes to save the planet is proposed.
Here are a couple of good resources to help you make choices that favour the planet: Coolkits from the University of British Columbia on urban forestry and home heating and cooling: Saving Us, by Canadian climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe, and Drawdown, edited by longtime environmentalist and founder of Erewhon, Paul Hawken.
Past inventions have made life better, and future inventions will too
Fossil fuels have powered tremendous advances in longevity and quality of life for much of the human race. But their use now threatens that. The science and the technologies prosperity has enabled will be the solution, but this is a race. Our support for government policies to limit global warming and our behaviours can help us win that race.
Humanity is adaptable and innovative, and with the right policies, we can make the future better than the past, as we have done with air pollution, acid rain, and damage to the ozone layer.
