A new poll finds nearly two-thirds of Ontarians oppose Premier Doug Ford's plan to build an expressway in a tunnel under Highway 401.
While the idea is more popular among Progressive Conservative supporters than other Ontarians, it risks driving one-in-six members of the party's base away: 16 per cent of poll respondents who said they support the PCs also said they would "certainly vote against any party that will build the tunnel."
Another 14 per cent of self-identified PC supporters said they are "somewhat more likely to vote against a party that will build the tunnel."
The poll of 996 Ontario adults on Oct. 15 was done by Pallas Data on behalf of The Trillium. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent, which is higher among subsamples.
The standings
The poll found Ford's Progressive Conservatives have a strong lead: 42 per cent among leaning and decided voters, compared to 28 per cent for Bonnie Crombie's Liberals, 22 per cent for Marit Stiles' NDP and seven per cent for Mike Schreiner's Green Party.
The poll also asked respondents how often they drive on a 400-series highway in the Greater Toronto Area. PC support is strongest among those who do so every day — at 56 per cent — and lowest among those who drive only rarely on those highways — at 34 per cent.
Ford's Tories have focused on wooing drivers: the PC government scrapped the annual licence plate sticker renewals and cut taxes on gasoline. The premier and his ministers constantly rail against the consumer carbon tax and they've made building highways a central focus of their governing and electioneering.
When the legislative sitting begins next week, the government will focus on a transportation bill that speeds along environmental assessments for Highway building and gives the Minister of Transportation the power to ban and remove bike lanes that take away car lanes.
An election may be around the corner. Ford has repeatedly refused to rule out calling one before the next scheduled date in June 2026. Most voters don't hate that idea: 29 per cent said they don't want an early election, but 20 per cent said they do. Another 31 per cent said there should only be an election if there's a good reason, and 19 per cent said they don't care when the election is called. The PC Party's base responded similarly to the electorate at large on that question.
A tunnel election?
When Ford first announced his plan to build a tunnelled expressway under the 401, he teed it up as an election issue, predicting — correctly, it turned out — that his rivals would oppose the project.
He said only his government would "get it done."
“I know this is an ambitious idea and that some people will say it can't be done or that we shouldn't even try — but these are the same people who oppose every project,” he said, citing the 413 project, the Bradford Bypass and subway projects.
“It's 'No, no, no. Every proposal to get people out of gridlock and get our province moving, they say 'no,' friends. That includes Bonnie Crombie," Ford said, referring to the Liberal leader. "She's opposed to everything we've done to make life cheaper and easier for drivers.”
But the idea is not universally popular.
The Pallas Data poll found 52 per cent of Ontarians "strongly oppose" the project, and another 10 per cent "somewhat oppose" it. Among PC supporters, 28 per cent "strongly oppose" it and 12 per cent "somewhat oppose it."
When poll respondents answered that question, they had not yet been asked for their views on the potential cost of the tunnel.
The Ford government has not given a cost estimate for the proposal. However, the Globe and Mail reported a $60-billion cost estimate from a leading engineering expert for an expressway tunnel from Brampton to Scarborough. The expert, Brian Garrod, said it would cost significantly more should additional lanes of traffic or a transit line, as Ford has floated, be included.
When poll respondents were given that cost estimate, negative views deepened somewhat. Thirty-six per cent of respondents said "the cost is too high, the tunnel should not be built," while another 32 per cent said it should not be built, even if the cost is lower than that estimate. Ten per cent said the $60-billion cost estimate is "the absolute most the province should pay," while 9 per cent said the cost is not important, as long as the tunnel is built.
The poll also sought to understand how voters' views on the tunnel could impact their vote in a subsequent question. Perhaps unsurprisingly, a majority of the supporters of the Liberal, NDP and Green parties said they would "certainly vote against any party that will build the tunnel."
However, 16 per cent of Progressive Conservative supporters and 31 per cent of undecided voters said the same.
According to pollster Joseph Angolano, if those voters were to follow through with that, it would put the Progressive Conservatives in minority government territory because a few respondents who support other parties said they would certainly vote for the party that will build the tunnel.
"That said, elections are about choices," Angolano said. "They may end up sticking for Ford for other reasons, or we may find other ways to rationalize their vote that has nothing to do with the with the highway."
Either way, the PCs have work cut out for them selling the plan to the public, which could include making promises that the construction would not disrupt current traffic on the 401, Angolano said.
Other options?
The poll also found that other transportation options to be more popular — including making better use of the 407 electronic toll route.
The 407 ETR is privately run under a lease from the province that isn't set to end until 2098. Earlier this year, the Ontario NDP, backed by a study sponsored by an environmental group opposing the highway, proposed removing the 407 tolls for trucks. Ford has mused about buying it back altogether.
When asked about toll highways, 57 per cent of respondents said it would be best for the province to buy back the 407 ETR and "remove or greatly reduce the tolls." Another 16 per cent chose subsidizing trucking companies' tolls. Only eight per cent chose a third option favoured by some transportation planners — tolling other provincial highways to reduce congestion overall.
When given differing options for how the provincial government should spend money on the GTA's congestion problems, 31 per cent chose "buy back the 407," and only 12 per cent said it should build more highway lanes, such as the new 413 highway and the 401 tunnel. Building more transit — such as more train service and dedicated bus lanes — was more popular, with 34 per cent support. However, 16 per cent of respondents chose none of the above, endorsing the sentiment that "Ontario taxpayers shouldn’t have to pay to fix the GTA’s congestion problems."
To read the full polling document, click here.