Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences
Roll out the champagne covered carpet: it's Oscars weekend. And for entertainment reporters (like myself), it might as well be Christmas.
After a bumpy three-year road of closures, delays, cancellations and unthinkable pressures, the shocks in the movie business system are only finally starting to recover.
Three years of COVID-19 have made a serious impact on film studios and decimated movie theatres. But after the phenomenal summer of 2022 and overall growing health of last year's box office, only now is there finally an upward trend that the movies are beginning to matter with a cultural presence again.
And tonight, it all culminates with the 95th Academy Awards presentation. In a year defined by big blockbusters, it's gong to be a big night for some of the....well, biggest.
With years of dwindling viewership and the recent sting of one particular slap, there's high stakes for the Oscars to have a good show tonight.
Yet despite the out-of-touch producing team and the current tumultuous state of the movie business, I’m still expecting tonight to be fun. It can be easy to feel cynical about another award show, but this is the Oscars - it really is an honour and a big deal to be a winner. And yes, it really also is an honour just to be nominated.
My advice? Like most entertainment from the waning pandemic, take the show's spirit seriously and the literal show less so. You’ll relax and have a lot more fun.
For anyone who's looking for an exciting venue to watch the show this year, Film.Ca Cinemas is resuming their annual Oscars party on the big screen, hosted by CEO Jeff Knoll. It's a great party and truly the best way in town to see the show. (Admission is free or by optional donation to the Oak Park Neighbourhood Centre.)
But who’s going to bring home a statuette? That’s always harder to figure out than it appears. If you want some help filling out an Oscar ballot, my annual cheat sheet is listed below.
Luckily, I saw nearly 200 movies last year, including over almost all of the nominated feature-length movies at tonight’s show. After an landmark year in cinema, let me help you figure out the likeliest winners.
It’s worth remembering that predicting the Oscars isn’t about who you want to win. It’s about who you think the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science actually voted to win.
And not that I like to brag, but my predictions last year in this same column story were almost perfect: I ended up correctly predicting 22 of the 23 winners.
Unlike last year when the prizes were spread out, here are my predictions for the three movies I believe will win more than one statuette. You can use my background and predictions to help you win your Oscar ballot tonight.
A24
EVERYTHING, EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
- Best Picture
- Best Director for Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
- Best Actress for Michelle Yeoh
- Best Supporting Actor for Ke Huy Quan
- Best Original Screenplay
- Best Film Editing
In a year full of inspiring, exciting blockbusters, there was none more creative, unique, earnest and exciting than Everything, Everywhere All At Once.
This has been invigorating audience and voters since its premiere almost one year ago, and it's the undisputed frontrunner. Even if it loses Best Picture, it will surely win multiple awards over the night.
Warner Bros. Pictures
ELVIS
- Best Actor for Austin Butler
- Best Costume Design
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Best Production Design
Strangely, the awards for both Best Actor and Best Makeup are between the same two movies: both Baz Luhrmann's Elvis and Darren Aronofsky's The Whale, starring Brendan Fraser.
Both films are deserving of the prizes, and these are tight, competitive races. Given that Elvis has been such a box-office smash and fan favourite since its debut last summer, it will likely come out the winner.
Read Oakville News' review from last summer here.
Netflix
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
- Best International Film
- Best Score
- Best Cinematography
Netflix has a weird contender in the Best Picture race this year, but the stunning beauty (in some truly un-beautiful circumstances) make All Quiet on the Western Front brutal and unforgettable. Even with some CGI-blazing movies on the ballot, this will win the most technical awards for the year.
Those three titles above are the only movies that will likely win more than one Oscar tonight. All the other ten categories are expected to go to different movies, each taking home only just one prize.
Two of my favourite movies this year, Women Talking and The Fabelmans, will likely only win one trophy tonight if none at all. That's especially sad as Women Talking gets my vote as the best movie of the whole year.
Listed below is each of the remaining awards and my predicted winner for them, ranked in order of likelihood (with one being the most secure prediction and twelve the most risky.) Some of these movies also have full reviews here with Oakville News - to read them, click on the highlighted movie title.
- "Naatu Naatu" from RRR (Best Original Song)
- Avatar: The Way of Water (Best Visual Effects)
- Sarah Polley for Women Talking (Best Adapted Screenplay)
- Top Gun: Maverick (Best Sound)
- Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (Best Animated Feature)
- Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Best Supporting Actress)
- Navalny (Best Documentary Feature)
- The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (Best Animated Short)
- The Elephant Whisperers (Best Documentary Short)
- Le Pupille (Best Live Action Short)
Everything, Everywhere All At Once has been the frontrunner for months in most categories, and according to website IGN, it has now surpassed 2003's Lord of the Rings: Return of the King as the most awarded film in history. That makes it a solid bet for multiple wins tonight.
Tonight’s ceremony begins airing on various networks at 8:00 p.m., but the red carpet pre-show begins on most channels at 7:00 p.m.
There's also the Oscars viewing party at Oakville's Film.Ca Cinemas, also starting at 7:00 p.m., though reserving a spot online in advance is recommended to guarantee a seat. (The event fills up every year, but often has seats until an hour or two before showtime.)
I suggested last year the 94th awards were exciting and unpredictable - two things it certainly was, but for the wrong reasons. Tonight ends the year-long bumpy road to end that reputation.
As Bette Davis said in the 1951 Best Picture winner All About Eve, “Fasten your seatbelts: It’s going to be a bumpy night!”
